Recession is Likely to Cause Spike in Property Crime

Common sense tells us that when the economy goes sour property crime is likely to rise with an increase in the number of people who become financially destitute. Yet, commonly cited statistics, textbooks, and theories suggest that the inverse relationship is true. Crime allegedly decreased during the Great Depression and spiked during the 60s when the economy was growing. Renowned criminologist Elliott Currie analyzed this literature and offered refuting evidence as part of his 1985 book, Confronting Crime. Indeed, since the FBI started collecting reliable data in 1960, a positive correlation between crime and economic recession has been observed.

The New Debate about the Economy and Burglary Trends
Recently, property crime has gone down as the economy has remained relatively stable. In 2007, property crime decreased 0.2 percent, while in the first six months of 2008, property crime decreased by 2.5 percent, according to preliminary figures released in the FBI's Uniform Crime Report. That said, the correlation between property crimes and economic recession may have more to do with local government and the police force than criminal behavior. Said Chuck Wexler, Executive Director of the Police Executive Research Forum, "We know that when police departments saw increases in violent crime in 2005 and 2006, they were able to respond quickly by using overtime to flood crime hot spots with additional patrols and sending specialized units in."

The formerly held belief that crime goes down during tough economic times has been largely swept away, at least among professionals and academics. In October 2008, Reuters conducted interviews with criminologists, sociologists, and police chiefs who predicted that property crime will rise as the nation sinks further into recession. Should this increase occur, the only question that will remain is whether poverty-stricken citizens are actively pressured into committing property crime or whether society will no longer possess the resources to combat the criminal tendencies that were already present.

Technology and Homeowner Actions
After online requests for residential alarm system installation went from 4,599 in 2006 to 7,451 in 2007, this past year saw a retreat to 5,995 requests, according to HomeAdvisor, leading online resource connecting homeowners with home improvement contractors. Possibly, part of this downturn—though nowhere near all of it—can be accounted for by a small increase in surveillance camera installation. Meanwhile, although the second half of the year is slower for alarm system installations, in the six-month period (Sept. '08-Feb. '09) since the economy has taken a sharp downturn, the pace of alarm system installation was only at 65 percent of the previous six months (March '08-August '08).

These statistics matter because homeowner precautions can be particularly important in deterring property crime created by recessions. Just as basic home security systems can't defend your home against determined and experienced burglars, these professional burglars aren't usually motivated by the same economic factors as teenagers who can no longer afford to go to the movies or purchase iPods. And, just like local police departments, at a time in which arguably additional home security has never been more warranted, homeowners are finding themselves less able and less willing to shell out the money for one of these systems.

The Stimulus Plan and Residential Burglaries
Interestingly, the extension of unemployment benefits, one of the most hotly criticized pieces of the recent economic stimulus package, is also one of the most reliable ways to ensure the recession doesn't spark an increase in property crimes. Several researchers, including James Defronzo at the University of Connecticut and Melissa Burek at Bowling Green State University, have demonstrated that as spending on welfare programs decrease property crime increases. While the effectiveness of the stimulus package in curbing the escalation in property crime will be difficult to gauge, CNN reporter Jia Lynn Yang does note that, during the Great Depression, "there's also a correlation between areas of the country that received more relief spending and lower infant mortality and property crime rates."

So, where does this leave us? Putting aside the politics of unemployment benefits, homeowners would do well not to trust that this aide alone with stem the tide of property crime. And, while fear itself never protected a single piece of electronic equipment, one's most cherished heirloom, or our loved ones, there has never been a better time to evaluate your home's security measures.